Cancellation of 10.8% of scheduled voyages by the three major alliances
The
Think Tank pointed out in latest weekly report that cancelling voyages
on major east-west container routes is now part of normal shipping
operations.
According to data, in June and July, 10.8% of scheduled flights on the 25 Central China Europe routes provided by the three major alliances were cancelled.
According
to Sea Intelligence data, the number of blank flights across the
Pacific also showed an upward trend in July and August.
According
to data from consulting firm Drury, the scheduled number of voyages in
August has decreased and the blank capacity has increased. After
excluding blank voyages, only 573 voyages were arranged on each mainline
throughout August, which is lower than the 600 to 650 net voyages from
April to July, but slightly higher than the lowest point of 545 voyages
in January.
With the influx of new ships and the overflow of
available ships, blank sailing has become a common practice. In the case
of ONE receiving new ships, the proportion of blank voyages in June and
July remains the highest for the THE Alliance.
MSC and Maersk's
2M alliance cancelled three flights from Central China to Europe during
the same period, and MSC's newly launched weekly "Swan" route from Asia
to the Baltic Sea also faces the difficulty of overcapacity.
To alleviate the pressure on the spot market, the suspension will continue
Think
Tank believes that limiting transportation capacity should alleviate
some of the pressure on the spot market, while experts from Freightos, a
container transportation platform, said: "There has been a moderate
increase in peak season transportation volume, coupled with an increase
in blank voyages, and in recent weeks, carrier spot freight rates have
risen, ending the trend of falling freight rates for more than a year.
Considering
the recent increase in freight rates, it is expected that this strict
capacity management will continue, which also means that the suspension
will continue until demand resumes.
The latest news released
yesterday by Atlantic Pacific Global Logistics said: "There are already
signs that there may be another comprehensive increase in freight rates
next month".
The gap between actual deployment capacity and estimated capacity is still significant
According
to data from the Danish maritime intelligence agency eeSea, the
estimated transportation capacity across the Pacific (PFO) decreased by
13% year-on-year from January to September, to 20.6 million TEUs.
EESea
explained, "There is always a discrepancy between the estimated
capacity and the actual deployed capacity. In normal years, the
estimated capacity is often 10-15% higher than the actual capacity. Some
capacity losses are indeed caused by the carrier canceling the voyage,
but not all of them are
Analysts at EESea pointed out that during
the period from January to September last year, due to strikes and
industry bottlenecks, the estimated capacity of the Trans Pacific route
was 25% higher than actual, equivalent to 6.1 million TEUs, resulting in
an effective deployment capacity of only 17.5 million TEUs.
According
to data from eeSea, the difference between the estimated and actual
deployment capacity in 2023 reached 3.5 million TEUs, with a loss rate
of 17%. Therefore, the effective deployment capacity was 17.1 million
TEUs, a decrease of only 2.4% compared to 2022.
In simple terms,
actively withdrawing capacity is easy to say, but before making actual
strategic decisions, it is important to ensure that you understand these
basic data.
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